BridgeWorks
The Labor Department's weekly unemployment claims report came out this morning, and on the surface it was good news. Initial claims fell to 194,000 in the week ending October 17, down 6,000 from the week before and one of the lowest readings in about three months.
Look one line further down the report, though, and the picture changes.
The two numbers
- Initial claims: 194,000, down 6,000. This counts people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, so it is the closest thing we have to a weekly layoff count. The four-week average, which smooths out the noise, was 197,750.
- Continuing claims: 1,728,000, up 25,000, for the week ending October 10. This counts people still collecting benefits after their first week. When it rises while new claims fall, it usually means fewer people are leaving unemployment, not that more are entering it.
What that combination means
This is the same pattern we have been describing since the summer: low layoffs and frozen hiring. Employers are holding on to the workers they have. They are also adding very few new ones, which showed up in September's jobs report as just 29,000 new jobs.
For someone with a job, that is a fairly safe place to be. For someone without one, it is a slow line. Last week we wrote about what happens when unemployment benefits run out before the search does, and this report is the weekly evidence of it.
It is worth adding one caution about the continuing claims number. It counts only people still receiving regular state benefits. In states where benefits last as little as 12 weeks, people drop out of that count when their benefits end, whether or not they have found work. So in a market where searches are getting longer, the continuing claims figure can understate how many people are still looking.
What we'd tell a job seeker
- Low layoffs mean employers are cautious, not closed. Openings still exist, but each one draws more applicants. Applications that are tailored to the job, and referrals from people already inside a company, matter more in a market like this.
- Plan for your benefits to end before your search does. Know your end date, and line up health coverage and other support before the last check.
- Consider building a credential while you search. Our programs train for hands-on fields like construction, logistics and manufacturing, and short-term training is now easier to pay for through Workforce Pell.
What to watch
The Federal Reserve meets next Tuesday and Wednesday, October 27 and 28, with inflation back up to 3.7 percent on one side and a weak hiring picture on the other. The October jobs report follows in early November. Weekly claims will keep coming every Thursday, and the number to watch is not the first line. It's the second.
